Saturday, May 23, 2020

Super Cyclone: A powerful destructive tropical Cyclone "Amphan"

There are two types of cyclones i.e. 1) Tropical Cyclones and 2) Extra-tropical cyclones. Tropical cyclones, as name suggests, forms in tropical region while the extra-tropical form in mid-latitudes. Tropical cyclones are comparatively smaller, longer-lived and are more intense. On 20 May 2020, a tropical cyclone named Amphan made landfall on eastern part of Indian Sub-continent. 
Amphan Cyclone
Image Courtesy: NASA, satellite image from MODIS onboard Aqua satellite

Development:

For the development of a tropical cyclone, following conditions are to be met:

  1. This type of storm typically develops over oceans between 10° and 20° N and S latitudes and no closer than 5° from the Equator.
  2. Tropical cyclones form over the sea where a threshold sea surface temperature of ~26.5° Celsius is reached. 
  3. An unstable environmental lapse rate is also required
  4. Weak winds with little change in speed or direction with height are also needed 
  5. The atmosphere must have a high-water content through the bottom 5 km of the atmosphere.

Category:

 To assess the intensity of tropical cyclones ranked on Saffir–Simpson scale which rank storms from category 1 (weak) to category 5 (devastating). Amphan has been ranked category 5. The intensity of a tropical cyclone is based on the central pressure of the storm, mean wind speed, and height of the accompanying sea-level rise. Further, Amphan has been classified as "Super Cyclone"; cyclones in the North Indian Ocean with winds surpassing 220 kilometers per hour are considered “super cyclonic”—the highest classification in the north Indian basin. On May 18, Amphan sustained winds of 265 km per hour. Amphan and, the last super cyclonic storm recorded was Odisha in 1999.

Track of Amphan:


Tropical cyclones move from west to east. Amphan made landfall between Digha in West Bengal and Hatiya Island in Bangladesh. After landfall it traversed as shown below. On the approach of cyclone, there is sudden rise of coastal water which is known as storm surge. Storm surge take sea water far inland and cause damage. 

Track of Amphan
Image Courtesy: The Hindu Newspaper, dated 21-05-2020

Destruction:

Since the category of Amphan is 5, devastation is very high wherever Amphan visited, particularly south West Bengal and 24 Pargana district.

Saturday, May 2, 2020

A play of thoughts and an escape route

Since this blog has two words namely Spatial and Ideas, I find it possible and interesting to delve into these separately and at the same time together. Consider this, in 1947, a geographer named John Kirkland Wright coined a term "geosophy" to describe our geographical imaginations. He suggested that geographers should use the geographical knowledge of non-geographers such a fisherman, farmers, drivers etc. to get their insight on geographical landscape. His concept, however, did not find immediate taker but later on a whole new school of thought i.e. Humanistic geography based on such a concept, apart from philosophical foundations of Phenomenology, wherein concepts like mental maps became very influential.
The idea is that we constantly gather information about our surroundings and tend to connect these to form our own concepts about any said thing or phenomenon. As a fact, same information produces different concepts for different people, this not only enriches our understanding of the world we live in but enriches a discipline the ideas belong to.
Having said this, in this post I want to explore the nature of our ideas and our thoughts leaving spatial part for an another post. Our thoughts are like unbroken string whereby one thought is connected to another to produce an understanding of a phenomenon. Thoughts, in this sense are similar to our breath which is also a chain of inhalation and exhalation. We cannot stop our breath, or may be for some time, similarly we can not stop our thoughts but may be partially during our sleep. This is how we have evolved, our mental energy consumption is highest among animals. A human brain can consume as much as 25% of energy while idling as compared to 5% in case of an elephant. Now, interestingly, our thoughts tend to produce emotions leading to production of moods. Many of us find ourselves invested in thinking about past or future which is like day dreaming as per Sam Harris, a leading philosopher who also runs a meditation App called Waking Up. This day dreaming sails us away from our present and produces negative or positive emotions as per our negative or positive thoughts. Once an emotion is formed, we tend to sustain it by producing similar kind of thoughts thus creating a gloomy or happy mood. The problem arises when our decisions are ridden on these emotions, our decisions are clouded by emotions producing bad/wrong decisions. If a person can take decision setting aside one's emotions, she is called an emotional intelligent and said to have high Emotional Quotient (EQ). A common thing noticed in leaders is that they have high EQ and their decisions are not overpowered by emotions.
Some people are more gloomy while others seems to be happy, this is because of the interplay of such thoughts. Since thoughts are a continuous chain, it seems to be difficult to get out of a mood. In a similar argument, it has been contested that once a behavior of a person is set e.g. gloomy or happy-going, it cannot be changed. Such people find themselves trapped in thoughts, extreme cases of them turn suicidal. However, as per Matthew Ricard, a known western face of Buddhist monks, meditation provide a ray of light in this dark tunnel. Even though, Yuval Noah Harari, in his famous book Sapiens a brief history of Humankind, contested that 99% of buddhist monks do not reach nirvana. Sam Harris on his App is positive that on continuous practice of meditation, it is possible to make changes in our brain's functioning where old neurons may disappear while new one will be created. To the depressed and their extreme cases i.e. suicidal people, this brings a ray of hope. The key point here is people do not need to attain nirvana but to keep on living their life as happy as possible by identifying their thoughts and escaping from potential dangerous ones. This possibility comes through a regular practice of meditation. As a disclaimer I declare that I too find myself engaged into day dreaming of past or future thoughts and try to cut them as short as possible by practicing meditation.  
Ironically, Meditation which is an inseparable tradition of Buddhist culture, seems to have been forgotten in its own motherland i.e. India. When EQ turn people into better decision makers, why meditation is not included in schools? The reason for including meditation courses in schools is that by the time children grow up, they will have clear understanding of their emotional flush. This will create a possibility of germinating leadership qualities in our future generations. However, there is no right time to start, people of all ages can start to map their emotions through meditation. Since I am writing this blog during the peak of COVID-19 pandemic, meditation can be helpful to deal with this stressful and uncertain situation.
On how to start meditation there are number of good sources such as Matthew Ricard's book: The art of meditation or Swami Vivekananda's book: Meditation and its methods. It is a bit easier to start with guided meditation, for that, one can look up Sam Harris's Waking Up App.

Tuesday, April 28, 2020

Role of locational technologies in the times of Epidemics/Pandemics

Today, the whole world is going through an unprecedented situation whereby an invisible foe (a microscopic virus) has taken toll on human lives, which is so huge that the modern world has rarely seen it before. It all began when a pneumonia of unknown cause detected in Wuhan, China was first reported to the World Health Organisation (WHO) Country Office in China on 31 Dec.'19. The real fangs of the disease started appearing when it spread outside China. Consequently, the WHO declared the disease as Public Health Emergency of International Concern on 30 Jan.'20. The Corona Virus Disease (COVID-19) kept on increasing, this led the WHO to characterize the COVID-19 as Pandemic i.e. a worldwide outbreak of a disease, on 11 March'20. For a sequence of COVID-19 related events visit: https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/events-as-they-happen. The responses by different countries were different where some countries took quick and drastic steps of complete lock-down while others downplayed it. The nations which were quicker in implementing social distancing through lock-down fared rather well e.g. South Korea, Taiwan than the otherwise countries e.g. Italy, Spain, United States of America etc. 
Here I am laying out a plan which can become part of a bigger institution or framework to deal with epidemics or pandemics. My focus here is on the use of Geographic Information System (GIS) technologies in dealing with such crisis. The use of GIS in public health has been broadly classified into  two major areas e.g. disease patterns studies (or epidemiological studies),  and Health care providers studies (or accessibility studies). Disease patterns studies include studies patterns of disease and finding its cause while accessibility studies are those which study access to, majorly, health care providers. In case of COVID-19 or any other epidemic/pandemic both the dimensions can be used to gather data and make informed decisions.

An automated Disease Pattern mapping/ Hot-spot Mapping

In this part I am proposing a framework where hospitals play the central part. When a epidemic/pandemic such as Dengue, Malaria, Viral outbreaks such as COVID-19 or SARS or MERS or Ebola etc., the first point where patients approach is hospitals. If these hospitals gather the accurate addresses, the addresses then can be submitted to a national portal. The portal then geo-code (a process of converting addresses to latitude/longitude) such addresses and plot the data in the background of any map rendering services e.g. Google Maps, Bing Maps, Mango Maps etc. This practice has two benefits namely: 1) Where such cases accumulate or hot-spots will be demarcated in no time 2) the data can be shared with Indian Statistical Institute (ISI), IITs, ICMR, Universities etc., where epidemiologists/mathematicians can analyse the data to find out what causes the epidemic/pandemic. In case of COVID-19, mapping hot-spots in no time is a real benefit while finding out the cause will not serve any purpose but for other vector-borne or contagious diseases such as Dengue, Malaria, Tuberculosis etc. the second point can become really helpful.
The establishment of a national portal and coercing all hospitals to share full addresses can be a challenge if done at local level. Therefore, this should be done at central level by passing a law by the parliament or issuing an ordinance by the President. The key here is the accurate and rapidly flowing data. Importance of data can not be overemphasized, data has been touted as new oil and as per the French philosopher Lyotard, focus of a war can be on the control of information or to say control of data.   


A graphical representation of how the flow of information can be planned

Accessibility to services

Accessibility to a service is the reach-ability to a service. If services are within reach, accessibility is termed to be good. In cases of pandemics (COVID-19), accessibility to not only hospitals but also to all other services such as grocery shop, milk shop, vegetable shop,  pharmacies etc. For that, all GST enrolled service providers could register their locations (in latitude/longitude) to the government. The government, in turn, use these locations to control their opening and closing in such extraordinary cases. For example, which grocery shop or pharmacy to be opened in which hours can easily be regulated. Further, with the help of a mobile App, all such locations can be shared with public at large. In this way, opening and closing can be controlled through government and public will be informed in one go (using the app). This will save time and energy of public and bring transparency. Additionally, the data and information will empower government to have more control over the resources of the nation and will be better prepared to tackle the epidemic or pandemic situations.
If we combine both the approaches, picture becomes clear, wherever infection happens it will be marked quickly over the map. This will highlight the extent of spread e.g. a person can go to 300-500 meter and can spread infection, closing or opening of shops can be regulated by authorities. Additionally, which service providers are nearest or safest can be judged and same information can be transmitted to the public.


A graphical representation of how the service providers can be geo-located and put in an App.

The above strategy is in addition to more common use in demarcating areas into red, orange and green zones. This can be done using a simple GIS operation.

The above framework can be put under ICMR or a new institution such as Taiwan's Central Epidemic Command Center (read more on this: https://epaper.thehindu.com/Home/ShareArticle?OrgId=G8L7CT638.1&imageview=0) can be established.