Tuesday, April 28, 2020

Role of locational technologies in the times of Epidemics/Pandemics

Today, the whole world is going through an unprecedented situation whereby an invisible foe (a microscopic virus) has taken toll on human lives, which is so huge that the modern world has rarely seen it before. It all began when a pneumonia of unknown cause detected in Wuhan, China was first reported to the World Health Organisation (WHO) Country Office in China on 31 Dec.'19. The real fangs of the disease started appearing when it spread outside China. Consequently, the WHO declared the disease as Public Health Emergency of International Concern on 30 Jan.'20. The Corona Virus Disease (COVID-19) kept on increasing, this led the WHO to characterize the COVID-19 as Pandemic i.e. a worldwide outbreak of a disease, on 11 March'20. For a sequence of COVID-19 related events visit: https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/events-as-they-happen. The responses by different countries were different where some countries took quick and drastic steps of complete lock-down while others downplayed it. The nations which were quicker in implementing social distancing through lock-down fared rather well e.g. South Korea, Taiwan than the otherwise countries e.g. Italy, Spain, United States of America etc. 
Here I am laying out a plan which can become part of a bigger institution or framework to deal with epidemics or pandemics. My focus here is on the use of Geographic Information System (GIS) technologies in dealing with such crisis. The use of GIS in public health has been broadly classified into  two major areas e.g. disease patterns studies (or epidemiological studies),  and Health care providers studies (or accessibility studies). Disease patterns studies include studies patterns of disease and finding its cause while accessibility studies are those which study access to, majorly, health care providers. In case of COVID-19 or any other epidemic/pandemic both the dimensions can be used to gather data and make informed decisions.

An automated Disease Pattern mapping/ Hot-spot Mapping

In this part I am proposing a framework where hospitals play the central part. When a epidemic/pandemic such as Dengue, Malaria, Viral outbreaks such as COVID-19 or SARS or MERS or Ebola etc., the first point where patients approach is hospitals. If these hospitals gather the accurate addresses, the addresses then can be submitted to a national portal. The portal then geo-code (a process of converting addresses to latitude/longitude) such addresses and plot the data in the background of any map rendering services e.g. Google Maps, Bing Maps, Mango Maps etc. This practice has two benefits namely: 1) Where such cases accumulate or hot-spots will be demarcated in no time 2) the data can be shared with Indian Statistical Institute (ISI), IITs, ICMR, Universities etc., where epidemiologists/mathematicians can analyse the data to find out what causes the epidemic/pandemic. In case of COVID-19, mapping hot-spots in no time is a real benefit while finding out the cause will not serve any purpose but for other vector-borne or contagious diseases such as Dengue, Malaria, Tuberculosis etc. the second point can become really helpful.
The establishment of a national portal and coercing all hospitals to share full addresses can be a challenge if done at local level. Therefore, this should be done at central level by passing a law by the parliament or issuing an ordinance by the President. The key here is the accurate and rapidly flowing data. Importance of data can not be overemphasized, data has been touted as new oil and as per the French philosopher Lyotard, focus of a war can be on the control of information or to say control of data.   


A graphical representation of how the flow of information can be planned

Accessibility to services

Accessibility to a service is the reach-ability to a service. If services are within reach, accessibility is termed to be good. In cases of pandemics (COVID-19), accessibility to not only hospitals but also to all other services such as grocery shop, milk shop, vegetable shop,  pharmacies etc. For that, all GST enrolled service providers could register their locations (in latitude/longitude) to the government. The government, in turn, use these locations to control their opening and closing in such extraordinary cases. For example, which grocery shop or pharmacy to be opened in which hours can easily be regulated. Further, with the help of a mobile App, all such locations can be shared with public at large. In this way, opening and closing can be controlled through government and public will be informed in one go (using the app). This will save time and energy of public and bring transparency. Additionally, the data and information will empower government to have more control over the resources of the nation and will be better prepared to tackle the epidemic or pandemic situations.
If we combine both the approaches, picture becomes clear, wherever infection happens it will be marked quickly over the map. This will highlight the extent of spread e.g. a person can go to 300-500 meter and can spread infection, closing or opening of shops can be regulated by authorities. Additionally, which service providers are nearest or safest can be judged and same information can be transmitted to the public.


A graphical representation of how the service providers can be geo-located and put in an App.

The above strategy is in addition to more common use in demarcating areas into red, orange and green zones. This can be done using a simple GIS operation.

The above framework can be put under ICMR or a new institution such as Taiwan's Central Epidemic Command Center (read more on this: https://epaper.thehindu.com/Home/ShareArticle?OrgId=G8L7CT638.1&imageview=0) can be established.